asked the Minister representing the Treasurer, upon notice, on 18 August 2011:

With reference to the Treasury Carbon Tax modelling, Strong growth, low pollution: Modelling a carbon price:

Given that in the medium global action scenario in the Treasury modelling, Treasury assumes that countries in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries [OPEC] enter co-ordinated global action on carbon pricing from 2021:

(1) What probability does Treasury attach to the idea that countries like Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Syria and Yemen will have operational and internationally-linked emission trading schemes (ETSs) within 10 years.

(2) If they are not expected to have internationally-linked ETSs by this time, what does it mean to say that they will join co-ordinated global action on carbon pricing by 2021.