Peter Hendy (Eden-Monaro, Liberal Party) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

One of the key themes emerging from the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore was the need for strategic certainty in the South China Sea. Defence ministers from the United States, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Germany and the United Kingdom all expressed concern about strategic uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific. Thus, there is a definite utility in Australia articulating a clear and deliberate position on the basic structures of Asia's regional order. That is precisely what Australia has done with respect to the building of artificial islands in the South China Sea.

To be charitable, the purpose of these islands is not entirely clear. But it is not entirely fanciful to consider them as China's unsinkable aircraft carriers. The Minister for Defence and the Secretary of the Department of Defence have both made clear and deliberate statements articulating Australia's opposition to the extensive land reclamation. In times of uncertainty, this degree of clarity about what Australia values is extremely important. In fact, it is critical.

The Chinese conundrum is exercising some of the best minds in the country and the government has made a high priority of signalling our strategic intent with clarity. Australia made a clear and deliberate expression of concern in 2014 about China's sudden announcement of a unilateral air-defence identification zone over the East China Sea. On that occasion the foreign minister said:

The timing and the manner of China's announcement are unhelpful in light of current regional tensions, and will not contribute to regional stability.

Australia has made clear its opposition to any coercive or unilateral actions to change the status quo in the East China Sea.

Whilst Australia takes no position on the competing territorial claims in the South China Sea, as with the East China Sea, it does object to unilateral and coercive action. Furthermore, Australia calls on all parties to resolve their disputes peacefully and in accordance with international law. It is in that context that last week the Secretary of the Department of Defence, Dennis Richardson, voiced his concern at the unprecedented pace and scale of China's land reclamation activity in the South China Sea. Mr Richardson said:

Over the last year alone, China has reclaimed nearly four times the total area of the other five claimant states combined.

He went on to say:

The speed and scale of China's land reclamation on disputed reefs and other features does raise the question of intent and purpose.

Further, the Defence Minister had this to say at the Shangri-La Dialogue:

We are particularly concerned at the prospect of militarisation of artificial structures. It is therefore important that countries agree as soon as possible on a substantive Code of Conduct for the South China Sea between ASEAN members and China.

He went on to say:

Disputes must be resolved peacefully, and Australia urges all parties to exercise restraint, halt all reclamation activities, refrain from provocative actions, and take steps to ease tensions.

And why? Because, as the minister warned, when tensions are high the risks of miscalculation resulting in conflict are very real. Like others, I wish for a rising China to be fully incorporated into the rules-based Asian order that we all—and China in particular—have benefited from over the last several decades.

Indeed, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic. It can be argued that in the case of China and the other big strategic power, the United States, the typical structural forces that push major powers toward direct conflict are weak. Unfortunately, that is not to say that the risk of conflict is not real—it is very real—in particular, conflict between neighbouring countries that could potentially drag in the US. A miscalculation arising from a secondary dispute, particularly in North Asia, could present the most likely catalyst for confrontation.

So let me be clear and deliberate. China cannot be allowed to impose a solution. Attempts by any nation to establish a military presence with the intent of defending contested sovereignty claims or a unilateral air defence identification zone in the South China Sea is destabilising and dangerous. There is plenty of room for China to rise in Asia. We welcome it and benefit from it. However, provocative moves can play to the region's worst fears about China's rise and endanger the rules-based Asian order by which we will all rise or fall. The future of the region depends on co-operation, not confrontation.