George Brandis (Queensland, Liberal Party, Shadow Attorney-General) Share this | Hansard source

At an exponentially accelerating rate. Yet, incredibly, when one looks across the forward estimates, we have a projection that the costs incurred due to these unauthorised arrivals will fall in 2014-15, will fall again in 2015-16 and will fall yet further in 2016-17. How did we get to this methodology when, at a time when the number of illegal arrivals is growing exponentially, the projection is that they will fall? You have to look at box 9 for the methodology:

The methodology for forecasting the number of IMAs involves projections of arrivals for the second and third forward year, derived using a technical assumption that is based on a medium-term, 10-year rolling average arrival rate.

That is the technical assumption. We do not know the derivation of that technical assumption but we use a 10-year rolling average arrival rate, which means we make our projections starting in the year 2002-03 when there were no boat arrivals; then in 2003-04, when there was one boat arrival; in 2004-05 when there were no boat arrivals; in 2005-06 when there were eight boat arrivals; in 2006-07, when there were four boat arrivals; in 2007-08, when there were three boat arrivals; in 2008-09, when there were 23 boat arrivals; in 2009-10, when there were 117 boat arrivals; in 2010-11, when there were 89 boat arrivals; in 2011-12, when there were 112 boat arrivals; and in this financial year when, as of today, there have been 333 boat arrivals. So to project forward for the next four years, at a time when boat arrivals are increasing exponentially, you take a 10-year rolling average to deflate the figures back to the way they were during the Howard government.