Kevin Rudd (Griffith, Australian Labor Party, Leader of the Opposition) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

My question is to the Prime Minister. Will the Prime Minister withdraw his statement that al-Qaeda is praying for a Democrat to become the next President of the United States?

John Howard (Bennelong, Liberal Party, Prime Minister) Share this | Link to this | Hansard source

I do not retract the statements that I made yesterday, and let me say the reference to the Democrats was in the context of Senator Obama being the candidate. Let me make that very clear. My starting point on this matter is that an American defeat in Iraq would be a catastrophe for the West, and an American withdrawal from Iraq anytime in the next 12 or 18 months, which is effectively what is being advocated by a number of people and effectively, by definition, because he wants to pull our forces out in that time, by the Leader of the Opposition. If you think that the consequence of that withdrawal is a figment of my imagination, can I read to you an extract from the latest national intelligence assessment, which was issued late in January of this year. The coverage of it has largely surrounded its references to whether or not there is a civil war, but what has not been covered is the following:

If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during the term of this Estimate—

and the term of the estimate, as the Leader of the Opposition knows, is 12 to 18 months from January 2007—

we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq, intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi Government, and have adverse consequences for national reconciliation.

It then goes on to say:

• If such a rapid withdrawal were to take place—

and that is what is being advocated by many people, not only in the United States but also here in Australia, including by the Leader of the Opposition—

we judge that the (Iraqi Security Force) would be unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian national institution; neighboring countries—invited by Iraqi factions or unilaterally—might intervene openly in the conflict; massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement would be probable; (al-Qaeda) would attempt to use parts of the country—particularly al-Anbar province—to plan increased attacks in and outside of Iraq; and spiraling violence and political disarray in Iraq, along with Kurdish moves to control Kirkuk and strengthen autonomy, could prompt Turkey to launch a military incursion.

That is the latest American national intelligence assessment. I repeat that if the United States were to withdraw her combat units from Iraq by the early part of next year it could only be represented as a defeat for the United States in Iraq. I hold the strongest possible view that it is contrary to the security interests of this country for America to be defeated in Iraq. I know that the Americans are going through a difficult time in relation to Iraq; that is obvious. That is precisely the time when friends should be available to stick by you, when you are going through a difficult time.

I notice that the Leader of the Opposition on 10 January said that, if he were elected, ‘We would withdraw the Australian forces within a reasonable time frame so that we would not leave our American ally immediately in the lurch.’ Immediately in the lurch, he says—in other words, he would leave them in the lurch but he would fudge it so it did not look as though it were immediate. I am amazed that the Leader of the Opposition and others on his front bench should criticise my criticism of remarks made by a candidate for the Democrat nomination. Apparently it is in order for any number of people in the Labor Party to regularly attack George Bush, to regularly attack the American administration. That is okay, but dare anybody criticise somebody who might agree with them on Iraq and then somehow or other I am interfering in the domestic politics of the United States. Let me make it perfectly clear: if I hear a policy being advocated that is contrary to Australia’s security interests I will criticise it.