Nicolette Boele (Bradfield, Independent) Share this | Hansard source

I move:

That this House:

(1) notes that:

(a) south-east Australia is at risk of seasonal gas shortfalls by 2027 as a result of prioritising our export market;

(b) there are several reasons for this upcoming shortfall, including:

(i) gas exports commenced from Gladstone, Queensland in 2015;

(ii) within a decade, 75 per cent of the total east coast gas volume demand was being exported; and

(iii) since 2017, successive Commonwealth Governments have introduced overlapping, interim measures to avert shortfalls;

(c) in June 2025, the Government announced it would conduct a review into gas market regulation; and

(d) Australians deserve, and it should not be difficult to achieve, a sufficiently predictable, reliable, affordable and transparent market; and

(2) calls on the Government to:

(a) only allow uncontracted gas to be exported after it has been offered to the domestic market at a reasonable price;

(b) end the cycle of changing government and regulator intervention in the gas market;

(c) conduct a thorough consultation process with key stakeholders for the purpose of reviewing the Future Gas Strategy, including to more deeply consider the impact of different gas users across the economy, the role of demand management and Australia's climate change policy commitments;

(d) establish a clear framework for the deployment of gas in the transition to a net zero economy, to give suppliers, investors, and large gas users the confidence to invest in clean technologies and infrastructure; and

(e) anchor the approach to gas market regulation in two key objectives:

(i) impose an ongoing obligation on LNG exporters to supply the domestic market, by embedding it in their export licences; and

(ii) improve transparency, by transferring the gas market monitoring role from the Australian Competition Consumer Commission to the Australian Energy Regulator, with a requirement to regularly aggregate and publish price and contract terms, and market imbalances.

This motion speaks to the heart of our energy security and our economic future. It asks a simple question: will Australians have access to affordable, reliable energy in the years ahead, or will we allow uncertainty and inadequate regulation to undermine our prosperity? My motion is about effective gas market regulation, and, upfront, I want to make something very clear. We have enough gas in this country. We do not have a gas supply problem. We have a gas export problem. To the extent that we have shortfalls predicted on the east coast, it is an infrastructure and distribution problem, not a problem of production. As always, we need to be clear about the facts.

Two developments have transformed our gas market. First, in 2015 liquefied natural gas exports began from Gladstone, Queensland, and within a decade 75 per cent of total east coast gas demand was being exported overseas. Overall, around 80 per cent of gas produced in Australia is being exported. Second, production from traditional, south-eastern fields, particularly Gippsland, is falling sharply. Peak day production capacity there will drop by 58 per cent between 2024 and 2028.

Governments have tried to manage this risk since 2017. We've seen the Turnbull government's Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism, codified to become a Heads of Agreement under the Morrison government, and then the Gas Market Code introduced by the Albanese government. These measures have helped avert shortfalls—but at a cost. Buyers and sellers alike are frustrated. Long-term contracts have shrunk, and short-term deals have surged from 28 petajoules in 2021 to 79 petajoules in 2024. This is not stability; this is volatility, and Australians deserve better. They deserve a gas market that's predictable, reliable, affordable and transparent. It should not be difficult to achieve this, and yet, today, our system depends on ad hoc ministerial decisions and quarterly negotiations with LNG exporters.

This is no way to run a market—a market that underpins manufacturing, electricity generation and household energy security. Worse still, the fact that a huge majority of our gas is exported means Australians may be in the absurd position of paying more for our gas than people in international markets do. Japan has even started reselling the Australian gas that it imports, which is surplus to requirements, at a substantial profit. Something has to give, and my motion sets out a clear path forward.

First, it calls for the government to ensure that uncontracted gas is offered to the domestic market at a reasonable price before it is exported. This principle is not radical; it's common sense.

Second, it calls for an end to the cycle of changing interventions. We need a single, integrated framework that operates continuously, not a patchwork of mechanisms that require constant activation. Export licences should carry an ongoing obligation to supply the domestic market.

Third, the motion calls for a thorough review of the Future Gas Strategy, and that review must go beyond supply. It must consider demand management, the impact of gas users across the economy and our climate commitments. Gas will play a role in the transition to net zero, but what role and for how long? Without clarity, investors cannot make decisions about pipelines, storage or regasification of terminals, and, without those investments, the risk of a south-east gas shortfall will increase.

Fourth, the motion calls for transparency. Today, the ACCC monitors the gas market while the AER oversees the broader energy system. This duplication creates confusion. The monitoring role should move to the AER, supported by AEMO's forecasting, with a requirement to publish aggregated price and contract data and market imbalances. Transparency is the foundation for efficiency and trust.

Finally, the motion anchors reform in two objectives: an ongoing obligation on LNG exporters to supply the domestic market and improved transparency through regular publication of market data.

These changes will give suppliers, investors and large users the confidence that they need to invest in clean technologies and infrastructure—and this is not just about gas. It's about energy security, economic competitiveness and the credibility of our transition to net zero. If we fail to act, manufacturers will face higher costs, householders will face even higher energy bills, and our electricity system will face greater risk during peak demand. If we succeed, we'll have a market that works—one that delivers affordable energy, supports jobs and aligns with our climate goals. (Time expired)

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