Dai Le (Fowler, Independent) Share this | Hansard source

Obviously everybody in this house is really passionate about addressing this housing shortage crisis that, at the moment, we are all hearing about from our community. I have no doubt that many members of the House here either own their house outright or have a small mortgage, so it's probably not as big a challenge for many of us in this house as it is for the rest of the Australian population. The government's new five per cent housing deposit scheme is being championed as a breakthrough for first home buyers. With years shaved off deposit savings, no lenders mortgage insurance and no income cap it really sounds terrific. It's easy to see the appeal. Just a five per cent deposit and you're told you can finally buy that home. On paper it's a dream come true.

But in my electorate residents are asking, 'If we're struggling to save five per cent, how will we ever manage the remaining 95 per cent of mortgage debt and the decades of interest that will follow?' Over a 25- to 30-year loan the bank stands to earn hundreds of thousands in interest while homeowners bear enormous financial risk. This five per cent doesn't really fix the root problem, which is supply. The five per cent doesn't even guarantee that you can actually buy the house, because the bank still has to assess the serviceability of your loan and your ability to pay it. What we're really seeing is a scheme that supercharges demand but does nothing for supply. I have constantly spoken in this house about the need to address the lack of supply, the infrastructure that we need—the roads, the public transport such as the east-west metro to connect south-west Sydney to the Western Sydney International Airport. We need to address all the infrastructure before we actually build homes.

Evidence backs this up. Independent modelling from the Insurance Council of Australia and Lateral Economics warns this expansion could push house prices up by as much as 10 per cent, and we have heard that from the member for Kennedy. Entry-level homes, where first home buyers compete, will see the steepest hikes, with price rises of between 3.5 per cent and 6.6 per cent nationally and even higher in our capital cities. Yes, families may save $21,000 to $28,000 on mortgage insurance, but many will watch their home's price climb quite significantly, leaving them worse off. Apparently research from Professor Chris Leishman at the University of South Australia forecasts similar impacts. Deposit schemes can drive prices up by seven to 10 per cent, and international evidence from New Zealand shows that, when deposit access was eased, prices soared and homeownership among young people actually fell.

Another thing is: why 1 October? What's this need to announce that, from 1 October, people can finally save up a deposit of five per cent? Can people realise how difficult it is for people to save up five per cent in the first place for a medium house in Fowler, currently around $1 million? For electorates like mine it's going to be a huge challenge. You don't need to be an economist to see the flaw. When you add demand to a market that's already short on supply, prices will certainly rise. The Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute highlights this repeatedly. Treasury and the Housing Industry Association both project it could take three to six years for any real supply response, if it comes at all. In the meantime affordability only worsens. This isn't a theory for the people of Fowler. In my community, overcrowding, rising rents and a shortage of new homes are daily realities. Quick fixes don't ease that pressure. What families need are long-term investments in new supply, local infrastructure and genuine affordability measures. I have mentioned over and over again: infrastructure is critical for any housing development. If you don't have infrastructure, we won't be able to address housing shortages in addition to workforce shortages.

Migration is another dimension. Migration is one of our greatest strengths. It fills skills gaps, grows our economy and enriches our communities. Electorates like Fowler are evidence of that. Our wonderful multicultural community contributes greatly to our diverse economy, our city, our community, our state and our nation. But, when growth outpaces planning and investment in schools, hospitals, transport and especially housing, the affordability squeeze intensifies. My constituents see this every day. Poor planning means rents and house prices spike, and both new arrivals and long-term residents struggle.

In last week's Housing Industry Association forum, industry leaders were clear. The five per cent deposit scheme, in an already tight market, will only drive prices higher. The HIA has confirmed that Australia needs at least 83,000 more tradies in the years ahead, just to keep pace with construction needs. When it comes to housing, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council projects a shortfall of over 200,000 homes by the end of the decade. Some industry bodies warn the real gap could be up to 400,000 dwellings. The government's own target of 1.2 million new homes by 2030 looks increasingly out of reach, while these workforce and supply constraints go unaddressed.

So let's be honest. The five per cent deposit scheme by itself is not a solution. It's a demand booster—a headline, not a fix. Real solutions require investment in building new homes, training local workers and thoughtful, coordinated planning to match migration with infrastructure. Affordable housing is the bedrock of health, education and strong families. I arrived here as a refugee, and I was very lucky back in the days, in the seventies and eighties, when we were able to live in a housing commission. It gave my late mother the opportunity to work in kitchens and restaurants and allowed my sisters and me to work towards buying our first home. Back in those days, a house in our area was around 80 grand to 100 grand or 200 grand. Now it's in the millions. It's really out of reach for any new arrivals, I believe.

To build a future where no family is left behind, we must match words with actions, short-term promises with long-term solutions, and demand with supply. My community in Fowler is not asking for another scheme. They're asking for real solutions, so don't give people false hope. I call on both the Labor and Liberals here to stop finger-pointing at one another and to focus on really addressing the issue at hand and focus on policies that are practical, implementable, affordable, accessible and impactful for the Australian people and the Australian economy.

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