Craig Emerson (Rankin, Australian Labor Party, Minister Assisting the Finance Minister on Deregulation) Share this | Hansard source

I would like to thank the member for Lindsay for his question. The member for Lindsay is a very strong supporter of small business, in particular in his local area of the Penrith Valley and his support for the Penrith City and District Business Enterprise Centre, which is being financially supported for the first time by the Commonwealth of Australia under the Rudd government’s leadership.

There has been encouraging recent news. Yesterday we were reminded of the ANZ job advertisements which showed the first monthly rise since April of 2008, so that is encouraging news. That is pretty good. Today, Dun and Bradstreet in their national business expectation survey recorded the highest sales expectations in five years and the greatest rise in one quarter recorded since the survey began in 1988. Also out today, the National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey reported that business confidence has reached its highest level since October 2003, so this is all encouraging news.

Last week the national accounts were out, showing positive growth for the June quarter of 0.6 per cent and growth in investment in plant and equipment of 5.6 per cent, so clearly the government’s strategy for managing the economic downturn is working. The stimulus is helping to restore business confidence and, in particular, small business confidence. We know how vital that is in sustaining the economic viability of small businesses, because if businesses are confident then they will invest in the future and, very importantly, they will ensure that they keep on their staff to the maximum extent possible.

Instead of making a constructive contribution to the policy debate the Leader of the Opposition has in fact opportunistically held just about every conceivable position on the stimulus. I will spare members opposite the task of going through all of those different positions, but I can report that initially he said it was about right—that was a flip. Then he said it was not enough—that was a flop. He then went on to say it makes no difference—flip—and then finally he said it is too much and it ought to be withdrawn. But on this matter the Leader of the Opposition remains isolated. I have been looking around since yesterday for any support that we might be able to find for the Leader of the Opposition’s position that the stimulus should be withdrawn. I cannot find any support. The International Monetary Fund has said:

Premature exit from accommodative monetary and fiscal policy is a principal concern.

We have had the Secretary of the Treasury in the United States warning about not repeating the mistakes of withdrawing stimulus prematurely. The OECD said:

… strong policy stimulus will continue to be needed in the near term.

The World Bank said countries should be prepared to:

… take additional steps and not withdraw stimulus in 2010.

So there are the four major international organisations warning about withdrawing stimulus prematurely, warning against the policies of the Leader of the Opposition.

Here at home we have the Commonwealth Treasury saying do not withdraw the stimulus prematurely. We have the Reserve Bank saying do not withdraw the stimulus prematurely. We have the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry saying do not withdraw the stimulus prematurely. We have Craig James, from CommSec, saying, ‘We wouldn’t be advocating that the government or the Reserve Bank change the settings in any way at the moment’—that is, do not withdraw the stimulus prematurely. The Ai Group said, ‘In relation to early withdrawal of the stimulus we would be getting well ahead of ourselves’—that is, do not withdraw the stimulus prematurely. Michael Blythe, the Commonwealth Bank’s Chief Economist, said, ‘The Australian economy will continue to benefit from economic policy stimulus in 2009.’ ANZ economist Riki Polygenis said, ‘Government policy actions continue to be a critical factor supporting the economy.’ Annette Beecher, of TD Securities, said, ‘Don’t withdraw the stimulus prematurely.’ AMP Securities senior economist Bob Cunneen said, ‘Don’t withdraw the stimulus prematurely.’ The scorecard is that a total of 13 international and national organisations have said do not withdraw the stimulus prematurely, do not take the advice of the Leader of the Opposition, because that would undermine economic growth and business confidence in this country—that is, 13 in favour of continuing the stimulus and one against.

I noticed before question time that the Leader of the Opposition was holding a press conference and he was using the phrase ‘as night follows day’. I wondered when I had heard that before from a Liberal opposition leader. I remember that none other than Andrew Peacock preceded Malcolm Turnbull with this statement—he regularly used to say ‘as night follows day’. Here is Sydney’s answer to Andrew Peacock. I used to say about Andrew Peacock because he made many attempts at the leadership and he made these comebacks—and here comes the fellow who has not asked a question for 468 days—

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