Kevin Rudd (Griffith, Australian Labor Party, Prime Minister) Share this | Hansard source

I thank the honourable member for his question. Recently the G20, at finance minister level, has been meeting in London to discuss measures taken so far but also what measures may further need to be taken in our response to what has been the worst economic crisis the world has confronted in three-quarters of a century. Here in Australia, I would like to inform the House, the ANZ job advertisement series shows that the number of job ads grew 4.1 per cent in August. They actually grew by 4.1 per cent in August. This is the first monthly increase since April 2008—that is nearly 18 months—and the strongest monthly growth since September 2007. The acting chief economist at Westpac says:

Australian economic activity has been remarkably resilient in recent months, particularly in some of our largest employing industries, such as retail trade, health services, government and construction.

Of course these are the industry areas where so much of the government stimulus strategy has been focused, and that is why it is important to see that these measures are having an effect. These figures on job advertisements follow what has been a positive result in the national accounts data released last week. Last week’s GDP result indicated that the government’s early and decisive action to cushion the economy from the worst impacts of the global recession is working. The Australian economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the June quarter and 0.6 per cent across the year. The results are that Australia has the strongest growth, over the past year, of any of the world’s 33 advanced economies; secondly, Australia is the only advanced economy to have reported positive growth over the last year; and, thirdly, Australia has the fastest growth, the lowest debt, the lowest deficit and the second lowest unemployment of the major advanced economies.

Domestic and international figures underscore the absolute importance of ensuring that we continue to stay the course with this strategy. Treasury advises that, in the absence of the government’s stimulus strategy delivered through our nation building for recovery plan, GDP in Australia would have fallen 0.3 per cent in the last quarter, the economy would be recording its third consecutive quarter of negative growth and, on top of that, the Australian economy would have contracted 1.3 per cent over the past year. In other words, had the strategy advocated by those opposite been adopted, Australia right now would be in the depths of recession and with unemployment going through the roof. Let us be absolutely clear about this: had the strategy advocated by those opposite been embraced, we would right now be in the depths of recession and with unemployment going through the roof.

Can I say to those opposite that the Australian economy, however, is not out of the woods yet. If you look carefully at the job ads data released in the ANZ series today, there is another important figure there which is worthy of examination, and that is that job ads are still down 48.1 per cent over the year. Furthermore, if you look at the recent data on trade, you will see that our export earnings fell by almost $11 billion in the June quarter, the largest fall on record, and this has been a consequence of the unwinding of the commodity boom. Also, company profits fell by 9.4 per cent over the past year, the largest fall since 1961. So, if you look carefully at the national accounts, if you look at trade data, if you look across the other indicators, there are strengths—largely but not exclusively in response to what the government has been doing by way of stimulus—but also weaknesses, which are reflecting the downturn in global economic activity which has been underway for some time.

For those opposite who believe that we may be out of the woods already, I draw their attention to the unemployment data which has come out of the United States overnight which says that unemployment in the US is now 9.7 per cent, and in Canada it is 8.7 per cent. These are very large numbers indeed. This underlines the absolute importance of ensuring that we prosecute a strategy which does not pull the rug from underneath the economic recovery. The Chief Economist of the Commonwealth Bank, Michael Blythe, says:

The Australian economy will continue to benefit from economic policy stimulus. We are not there yet, but that stimulus should get us through to the point where a self-sustaining recovery takes over.

Furthermore, in terms of the absolute importance of economic stimulus, I draw the attention of those opposite to what was concluded by the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors over the course of the weekend in London. They said, in their communique:

We will continue to implement decisively our necessary financial support measures and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, consistent with price stability and long-term fiscal sustainability, until recovery is secured.

It is worth reflecting on that. You have the finance ministers and the central bank governors from the United Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Italy, Canada, the United States, Japan, China, the Republic of Korea, Indonesia, India and other countries, of course. None of these central bank governors or finance ministers, according to those opposite, has a clue what they are talking about. Only those opposite, it seems, have received wisdom from on high—this is the only course of action, they say—that it is time to pull the rug from under the recovery by pulling the rug from under the government’s stimulus strategy being delivered through the nation building for recovery plan.

I also draw the attention of those opposite to the very important intervention by the Treasurer of Western Australia, Troy Buswell. What did Troy have to say? Troy had a few things to say. Troy was asked:

Back on the economy: should the Commonwealth pull back on its stimulus strategy?

Troy said:

No. I think that would be far too premature, to argue for the Commonwealth to pull back on a stimulatory package. There is still much uncertainty.

There you have the finance ministers and the central bank governors of the 20 largest economies in the world, you have major public economists and you have our industry organisation leaders urging the government to continue in its course of action. You have Troy Buswell, the Liberal Treasurer of Western Australia out there saying the same. There is but one voice in the wilderness saying that this is all wrong, and that voice is that of the Leader of the Opposition, who has argued consistently, ‘You should never have brought in stimulus in the first place,’ presumably because their strategy—

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